Miami Dolphins Josh Rosen Only Needs to be Mediocre

The Miami Dolphins pulled off what might be the steal of the draft, without involving a player in the draft. When the team traded back in the second round, it gave them a more comfortable approach at trading a second round pick for Arizona’s Josh Rosen. For the next 3 seasons the Dolphins have a first round pick at quarterback for the price of most team’s back up QBs. It’s a low risk, high reward situation if he produces, but even if he doesn’t there’s no cause for panic. Maybe the Dolphins aren’t looking to him to be the next Dan Marino, but have another role all together.

Sure, it would be great if Rosen is the next big thing in the NFL. He’s young, he’s got the talent, and Miami gave up pennies for his services. However, after a not so flattering season with the Cardinals, there’s no telling if it was Rosen, the team, or the coaches. Despite what Arizona might think, one season does not define a whole career. But let’s play the blame game and say Rosen was as bad as the Cardinals let on, what would Miami gain by trading for a player who might not be able to change their fortunes?

Since most fans on social media will point to the team’s desire to tank for next year that might not be the case. Everyone keeps pointing out the best/worst case scenario. The best case scenario Rosen’s their guy and turns the offense around. The worst case scenario is he stinks up the joint and the Dolphins draft their guy next year. The middle ground is where everyone’s fear starts to sink in. What if Rosen is just okay.

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But that’s the beauty of it all, Rosen only needs to be nothing more than he already is. Even if Miami finishes the season 8-8, they are no worse off for next year than they are right now. With the talent the Dolphins brought in with this year’s draft, with the talent they already have, and with the amount of picks next year the team holds all the cards for their future. Rosen doesn’t have to be a star for them to move forward. Assuming he ends up being the team’s starter this year, he only needs to play well enough to allow the team to develop young talent.

Yes, finishing the season at 7-9 or 8-8 as it stands sounds horrible when thinking of the top quarterback in next year’s draft. Even then, the Dolphins are in good position to make a move. If Rosen comes in and is mediocre, Miami comes out ahead. With a stockpile of picks in next year’s draft, they can build their depleted units. By adding the much needed depth in next year’s draft and free agent pool, the Dolphins won’t have to walk out and nail every pick of the draft. Being able to add players who will come in and be starters and having time to develop the player’s deeper in the depth chart. They can afford to gamble with future picks to move up in the draft.

So how does this reflect in Rosen’s play? If Miami can build talent in their starting units, can build depth for their future players, and cover depth for midseason injuries in their first two years then they can be a little bit more free with year 3 draft picks. An 8-8 season would land them in the middle of the first round, but it’s not a spot they’ll need to stay. If the Dolphins could package their pick with a future first round pick, moving up to get their guy wouldn’t be hard at all. They wouldn’t need to trade out too many picks in their year two draft pool. In next year’s draft, if they want to trade up they can package their mid-round with a 1 next year and still leverage their quarterback of the future and not jeopardize the rest of their draft. Miami holds all the cards.

All that adds up to Josh Rosen not needing to have expectations. He and Ryan Fitzpatrick can play great, they can play terrible, they can play mediocre and Miami’s strategy will not change. The Dolphins are in position to build their team from the ground up so expectations from the quarterback have been wiped clean. Miami can just go out and settle in to their season and develop their talent for the future. No quarterback on their roster needs to be the next Dan Marino, but it wouldn’t hurt.