MLB: Who’s to Blame When MLBPA Votes to Strike in 2021? -

We all remember that horrible day on August 12, 1994, when our beloved game fell silent. That was the day MLBPA voted to begin the longest strike in professional sports history. It led to a depressing 232-day-long work stoppage that led to a whopping 948 games to be annulled. For you guys that are math majors out there, that would be equivalent to 8,532 innings or 2,844 hours (based on average game time circa 1994) of baseball us fans did not get an opportunity to watch.

As the historic Boston Red Sox were clinching their ninth Commissioner’s Trophy in the fall of 2018 this meant that the offseason would soon begin. And this is where the murmurs of a work stoppage originated and may continue well into future seasons. There is a disturbing trend that is beginning to show itself in MLB. Total gross revenues for MLB in 2018 were a remarkable 10.3 billion. That sounds like a healthy and robust corporation…Right? Well from the player’s point view MLB only spent 54.2% of revenues on salaries this includes minor leaguer players as well. This would indicate the second lowest salary percent since 2010 and a steep decline of 4% compared to 2017.

Owners unwillingness to spend a higher percentage on salaries is not the only thing getting player’s attention these days. The arbitration process has become an eye rising ordeal for young players. Basically, players are positioned into three separate categories (1) pre-arbitration players; (2) players eligible for salary arbitration; and (3) free agents. The main driving force in these definitions are depended on “service time”. Service time is defined as the number of years and days of major league service a player has in their career. Pre-arbitration players typically have less than three years of service while arbitration-eligible players usually have three to six years of service. Until recently it was uncommon for a team to allow an arbitration-eligible player to make it to an actual arbitration hearing. An arbitration hearing allows both sides to state their case for why a player should or should not receive a rise in salary. So, you call see why teams would have tried to avoid this process as it would cause them to “bad mouth” a given player leading to lower morale. However, 22 players went to a hearing this past offseason the highest number since 1974. This would indicate that teams are more willing to take a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration, which means that any arbitration case that doesn’t get settled by the filing deadline will go to a hearing and implies a greater willingness to hold a hard line in general.

The final major issue turning heads is service time manipulation by MLB teams. Teams holding back players longer than is necessary (looking at you Toronto). Teams do this to push back the age in which a player would be eligible for free agency. And this is a direct result of these “so-called” sabermetrics of today’s nerd world. These analytics are showing that players are trending downward as they hit free agency. Therefore, it is leading to more and more teams to manipulate service time of young stud players to pay them the least amount for as long as possible while performance is at peak level.

So, who is responsible for all this madness? Is it the owners? Is it the players? The answer is a big NO and a HELL NO. This lays at the feet of GM’s or whatever fancy title they may give themselves these days. In an endeavor of self-preservation, GMs are going out of their way to stay away from long term contracts. Why? Because they are risky both financially for the team but for their job security as well. If a team signs aging veterans such as Hanley Ramirez or a Fat Pablo Sandoval (Looking at you Boston) to big money contracts and they end up sucking guess who gets blamed. It’s just cheaper and easier to manipulate service time, force players into arbitration (which has over 50% success rate for the team), spend less on salaries (no salary cap or minimum) than it is to ensure a level playing field for all players.

Is a strike inevitable? Let’s hope not but owners have been placing themselves in a strong leverage position for a few years now. And it is clear that the players are getting frustrated and upset with ownership. With that said I believe “Hope springs eternal” and that both sides can find common ground and resolve this before our game falls silent again.