NCAA: Mid/Major Breakout Candidates For NBA Draft

NBA Draft Candidates

The Power Conferences always get the most attention in collegiate sports. There is plenty of talent in the mid-majors as well. The college basketball world has a great deal of under-the-radar names who are poised to be the next big stars getting into the NBA conversation. While some we may have heard of before (Max Abams, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Taveon Kinsey), most don’t have that established credibility as of yet.

Here are a few names to keep a close eye on.

Isaiah Stevens, Colorado State

Colorado State should be a fringe NCAA Tournament team even if they don’t win the Mountain West Conference outright. Stevens is the Rams’ most productive player. He’s a dual-threat point guard. Stevens averaged 15.3 points in 2020-21. He did so on very effective percentages (.486 from 2-pt range, .427 from 3-pt range). What’s most intriguing is his ability to pass the ball (5.4 assists) as well.

Stevens scored the game-winning layup for Colorado State against Buffalo in the 1st rnd of the NIT. There have been numerous instances of him knocking down clutch buckets.  Dare I say that Stevens is very Dame-Time-like? He is aggressive getting to the paint and can score around the rim in some very interesting ways. The one fault I have with Stevens (and it’s minor), he doesn’t have the ball-handling skills of an elite NBA PG. Looking at some other PG prospects coming into the NBA Draft (Ty Ty Washington, Andre Curbelo), Stevens isn’t as refined as they are with the ball in his hands. He is still a very efficient passer and a better overall PG than most.

Josh Mballa, Buffalo

Mballa is not a player I’m 100% sold on. I like that he brings toughness and grit to the court. He’s a tenacious rebounder (10.8 per game in 2020-21), not a very effective scorer (.486 FG%). His 2020-21 season could have been viewed as a step back. He averaged 1 more rebound, his FG % dropped .80 points, and he went from 1.1 blocks per game to .5 per.

My hope is that Mballa focuses on playing inside more. He can still develop his shot but focus on the defensive side of the ball. I truly believe Mballa is one of the best rebounders and rim protectors in D1. That’s why he’s on this list. I think he could be a really big sleeper if he rebounds from a bad 20-21 season.

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Darius McGhee, Liberty

McGhee is a real wildcard. His stats look rather pedestrian for a mid-major breakout.  I like the scoring upside he brings to the table. McGhee is a 3-point specialist. In 2020-21, he shot 8 three’s a contest. By comparison, McGhee only took 3.9 two-point shots. Given a full year of practice and fewer Covid restrictions, this might be a player who develops into a premier scorer.

McGhee has always been a primary shooter from deep, however, I’m convinced he can be a much more explosive player as well.  McGhee has an amazing 48-inch vertical leap. The guy can jump out of the gym. Add all of these factors together; I’m banking on a breakout.

Grant Sherfield, Nevada

If I made a list of my top-10 PGs going into the college basketball season, Ty Ty Washington and the aforementioned Isaiah Stevens make the list at 1 and 2. The back half would include Grant Sherfield. Stevens might have the higher scoring ceiling. Washington is the best ball-handler of anyone in D1. Sherfield might be the one who has the most NBA-ready game. He’s an 18.6 PPG scorer with 6.1 assists, and 1.8 steals added.

Sherifled might not have the clutch gene of Stevens, however, his ceiling is that of Deron Williams in the NBA. He will be efficient and make a few All-Star teams if he gets his chance.  He isn’t going to garner MVP votes but will be as solid as you can be for an NBA starter.

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There are many mid-major names to keep an eye on. The ones I mentioned are those who I feel have a legitimate shot to sneak into the draft conversation. Each brings something to the table that NBA teams are looking for.

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