Projecting the AFC East Division Winner

The NFL this year is as chaotic as it gets. Between the covid rules, switching of schedules, and division races being turned upside down it’s not your normal NFL season. For the AFC East, things haven’t been this interesting in years. It’s always been the Patriots at the top and the rest of the division playing catch up. Looking ahead to the rest of the season, 7 games remain and 3 out of the 4 teams are in the hunt. Breaking down each team individually separates their chances. Assuming they’ll win against teams with a losing record, and lose against teams with a winning record here’s what the rest of the season could look like:

New York Jets (0-9):

The Jets have no chance so we’ll eliminate them right off the bat. No disrespect to the team, but they haven’t shown they could win a game all season.

Buffalo Bills (7-3):

Buffalo is firmly in control of the AFC East and controls their destiny. Most people wouldn’t call a one-game lead “firm control” but Buffalo is 4-0 against division rivals with only 2 more matchups to go. They’ll face the 2-7 Chargers (W), the 4-6 Niners (W), 10-0 Steelers (L), 3-6 Broncos (W), 4-5 Pats (W), and the 6-3 Dolphins (L). Even if it breaks to them losing to teams with winning records and winning against teams who don’t, Buffalo should finish the season 11-5. Even if they lose or win against a team they shouldn’t they ought to walk away with double-digit wins. They’d need a catastrophic breakdown or the rest of the division to win out to lose the division.

Miami Dolphins (6-3):

Miami could move into a two-way tie for the division this week with a win while Buffalo is on a bye week. They’re 1-2 in the division and would need to go on a run to overtake the Bills. They’ll face the 3-6 Broncos (W), the 0-9 Jets (W), the 2-6-1 Bengals (W), 8-1 Chiefs (L), 4-5 Pats(W), 6-3 Raiders (L), and 7-3 Bills (L). Losing to winning teams Miami would finish 10-6 just shy of the division but should get a wild card spot.

MORE AFC East: Can the Miami Dolphins Win the Division?

New England Patriots (4-5):

While the Patriots have looked awful at times, they’re still in the hunt. They’ll face the 2-7 Texans (W), 6-4 Cardinals (L), 2-7 Chargers (W), 6-3 Rams (L), 6-3 Dolphins (L), 7-3 Bills (L), and 0-9 Jets (W). With that remaining schedule, the Pats would finish 7-9 and most likely be eliminated from playoff contention. Out of the entire division, they’ll have the toughest road, but they’ve pulled off miracles before.

Of course, in today’s NFL, anyone can beat any team at any time. Teams are going to lose against bad teams and win against good ones. However, the AFC East more than likely will finish with the Bills on top and the Dolphins right on their heels. Things could change when the colder weather hits, but there’s a good projection of how the rest of the season will go.