Seattle Mariners Have A New Prospect Sensation: Carlos Jimenez
Felnin Celestin is the name all Seattle Mariners fans are salivating over. The filet mignon of the Mariners farm system, nobody outside of Complex Ball has gotten a good look at the 5-tool talent. While many expect Felnin to get the bump to LO-A Modesto rather soon and we can all justify the talent, he is not the most intriguing and enticing Mariner of the Complex league.
Carlos Jimenez was nowhere to be seen on my top-30 prospects list for the Settle Mariners (and most others as well) at the beginning of the 2024 season. While Jimenez did hit well in the ACL in 2023, he only mustered up a .266 batting average with an OPS of .750. Adding to the pedestrian numbers, Jimenez struck out 51 times and only walked 22. Why dedicate this article to a non-top-30 prospect in one of the deepest systems in baseball? Let’s look at the 2024 version of Carlos Jimenez to give you an idea. In the ACL this year, Jimenez is taking no prisoners and has no sympathy for opposing pitchers. He is hitting .380 with an OPS of 1.140.
These numbers are not sustainable, however, that does not mean a breakout isn’t occurring. Jimenez has a BABIP of .508. The major league average hovers around .320. We need to assume that Jimenez will level out as this .508 clip is telling of some good old-fashioned luck. Balls in play do not simply work in a hitter’s favor over 50 percent of the time. That does mean a potential dip in average. I mentioned not sustainable numbers earlier. The BAPIB indicates a lower batting average is on the horizon. To show the true progression, we need to key in on the K/BB ratio and the more patient approach at the plate.
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I stated previously in 2023, Jimenez took 51 strikeouts to 22 walks. In 2024, Jimenez had taken 32 strikeouts to 23 walks. Also, Jimenez has increased his pitches per at-bat from 2 to 3.6. Jimenez has become more patient at the plate. And while luck plays a factor in the higher batting average and BABIP leading to a definite regression, if Jimenez is taking pitches and learning to work the count, the expected regression will not be as prolific.
At 5’10, it is not likely Jimenez plays as a power-hitting outfielder. With that being said, in 2024, 17 of his 38 hits have gone for extra bases, and he’s recorded 9 doubles and 1 triple. Compare that to 8 doubles and 2 triples in 2023 where Jimenez has done so in 58 fewer at-bats. It’s okay to be skeptical of his power, but paired with the sudden patient approach, pitchers are going to have to work to prevent Jimenez from making contact.
The obvious criticism, and argument for Jimenez’s potential over Celestin (and others in the lower levels of the system), is the age factor. Jimenez is a 21-year-old ACL repeat. We need to stop any negative thoughts here, though. While Jimenez is not the prospect of Celestin, the improvements he has made aren’t to do with comfortability at a level, they are based on maturity and baseball IQ. These types of intangibles most players can not pick up on.
I’d almost peg Jimenez as a Top-20 prospect for Seattle. My hold-up, while I am confident the 2024 version is not a fluke, we need to let him settle into Lo-A ball first. How does he react to more advanced pitching? The main key I want to see is how aggressive he is at the plate. What pitches is he laying off, what is he taking? Is he working the count? That will give me a better idea of the type of prospect this is going forward.
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The upside is not that of current Mariners’ top-100 guys such as Jonny Farmelo, Lazaro Montes, Aidan Smith, Michael Arroyo, or Tai Peete. A lot of that conclusion is based on age. Some of these names have been in Lo-A Modesto for over a year. Of the names, none (at the time of writing) are older than 19. So it would make sense that a 21-year-old is not in that same upside category or tier among prospectors of the Mariners. Those arguments, while valid, need to be taken with a grain of salt. Some of these improvements Jimenez has made, I am still waiting to see from the other names in Lo-A. Jimenez spent two years in the DSL. While, again, not uncommon, his fellow international peers have moved up to Lo-A at a faster rate. However, Montes has pure raw power that is unmatched. Arroyo had a hit tool that could not be denied any longer. Jimenez does not necessarily have that standout trait.
We could see Jimenez play 1.5 seasons at Lo-A. There is not a damn thing wrong with that. If these improvements made in the ACL this year are flashing in Lo-A, Seattle can continue to slowly move him along the farm. There is no real difference in him coming into Lo-A as a college bat who is of the same age. That should have no bearing on him and the ceiling, however, talent is talent, if others pass him in the system due to his slower progression, that could cause issues. We obviously want to see Jimenez make bigger strides in one full season of a level as opposed to two and repeating it. Some players do not progress like that. I can not deny the improved maturity I see from Jimenez. Will he be placed in the upper echelon of the Mariners system? Who knows? The speed at which he figures out the lower affiliated leagues will go a long way in his ranking.
Daniel is a guru of baseball and basketball prospects. He’s a very experienced Amusement Park traveler as well. Follow him and his hot takes on Insta @dgentleman9288
