Seattle Mariners: Post MLB Draft Top-30 Prospects
1. Harry Ford
The Hero of the Great Britain World Baseball Classic team. Ford showcased himself on a National stage at the WBC. He continues to remain the top prospect for Seattle. With no reason to assume he cannot continue as a catcher, Ford has a patient approach at the plate no other catching prospect has. The one thing to question is, will Ford hit for power? In the end, the power (which at its floor is 20 HR’s a season) is more of the chocolate drizzle on a perfect Starbucks latte.
2. Jonatan Clase
The emergence of Clase has been one of the minor leagues’ biggest stories. Once thought of as a leadoff hitter with speed, Clase has shown some real pop in his bat to go along with 80-grade speed. One thing to watch (and a reason for him not being top in the system over Ford), is a high K rate and uncertainty over a hit-over-power approach. This could prevent Clase from being a true leadoff hitter with pop to a mere bottom-order whiff machine, or a pinch runner. The high upside and growth leave many intrigued.
3. Tyler Locklear
The power Locklear possesses is among the highest in the Seattle system. Playing at VCU, many were led to assume Locklear would not maintain his collegiate hitting display in the minors. Locklear has had success in both Lo-A and Hi-A. Had it not been for an injury, Locklear would assuredly be raking at AA Arkansas.
4. Gabriel Gonzalez
Gonzalez has the ability to hit 30+ HRs with a .300 average. Being in the Modesto area, I have seen a good amount of Gonzalez live. He’s a very immature player. On numerous occasions, emotions get the better of him. Gonzalez has also made some rather questionable plays (lazy) in the outfield. If Gonzalez grows to his maturity, he’s the top guy in this system.
5. Cole Young
I am a big Cole Young fan. Of all the times I have seen Young in Modesto, he doesn’t seem phased. His hit tool is one of the best in Seattle’s system. Here’s my concern with Young. How much power does he possess? He can hit, and profiles as a good OBP option with low K’s. However, is he a 25+ HR guy, or a 10+ HR? There is still a safe path to the majors given the hit tool keeps progressing as it has.
6. Lazaro Montes
A lot of the prospect community is high on Montes. The hype is warranted. Montes can launch baseballs to Canada from T-Mobile Park. Montes, for all his power, has some real K concerns. While I believe he’s a more disciplined teammate and a better defender than Gabe Gonzalez (the former I need to see more firsthand), the K rate concerns me. For a player who is mainly a power hitter, I am not sure whether he’s MVP-level Vlad Guerrero Jr or 2023 Josh Bell. If you bet the ceiling of the former, he’s worth a much higher ranking. I just need more live looks to say that.
7. Michael Arroyo
Like Young and Ford, Arroyo’s developmental ceiling hinges on his ability to hit for power. Of the three, Arroyo has the lowest ceiling in that category. Arroyo does possess a solid hit tool, one that I feel, paired with his defensive ability in the IF, makes him a top name in the system. I want to comp Arroyo to Guardians All-Star, Jose Ramirez, a rather unheralded fast riser who defied a lot of expectations. I am very cautious of power development.
More MLB: Steven Cohen’s Spending Pushes Mets At Deadline
8. Felnin Celestin
It’s too early to call Celestin a hit for the Mariners Int’l class, however, he is a relatively sure bet. While Ethan Salas and Sebastian Walcott have been the bright stars of the 2023 class, Celestin was considered the top name for some time. While he’s had a slow start due to injury, once Celestin gets going, that potential will show itself.
9. Jonny Farmelo
Farmelo was one of the most sought-after high school bats in 2023. The belief was his strong commitment to Virginia scared teams off. Not to diminish Tai Peete and Aidan Smith, if any player in the Seattle HS rookie class of 2023 has superstar potential, it’s Farmelo. This is a real 5-tool threat. If all breaks right, a consistent All-Star. I am cautious about a higher ranking as there is still as much uncertainty as projectability.
10. Walter Ford
The Vanilla Missile was one of the youngest players of the 2022 Draft. High School arms are always crapshoots, Ford is no exception. He is a very high-risk, high-reward player. Ford has a very pro-baseball image and markets himself well. I get real Trevor Bauer impact vibes (minus the headcase concerns and unorthodox delivery) from Ford. There have been reports of fastball regression which could affect his stock in the future.
11. Tai Peete
An athletic high schooler, Peete has the 5-tool ability. He (like Walter Ford) was also the youngest player in his draft class. How all of this develops is a mystery. Seattle has the staff to turn Peete into a top prospect and MLB star. Does he hit that lofty ceiling? Peete is a freak athlete who was a former 2-way player. The amount of mystery in him would give any concern. The ceiling gives an unheralded amount of optimism.
12. Emerson Hancock
Hancock features a good assortment of pitches. I had him a lot higher on previous lists. Here’s my concern with him. Hancock does not have one true money pitch. Add in that other pitchers in the Seattle system (Woo, Miller) have leapfrogged him to the majors, I am a bit concerned of his true potential. I have Hancock at 12 due to his proximity to Seattle. While a guaranteed starter, how effective he will be remains to be seen.
13. Aidan Smith
I absolutely adore Smith’s potential. He has a hit-over-power approach (like a lot of Seattle’s top prospects), however, Smith has plus speed that could cement him as a top-of-the-order bat. Unlike Ford, Young, and Emerson (more on him soon), Smith does not need the power to develop. He does indeed have room to grow into that power, however, as a top-of-the-order CF, I like his potential to get on base and steal bags all while playing a good defensive OF.
More Seattle Mariners: Top-30 Early Prospects
14. Teddy McGraw
McGraw could have been a first-round pick had Tommy John not played a factor. Seattle had success with Bryan Woo in this same fashion. McGraw is a more established starter than Woo was during his draft period.
15. AJ Izzi
Izzi, while he doesn’t have the star appeal of Ford, he has a dynamite fastball that can hit 97. The key, sharpening the secondary offerings.
16. Colt Emerson
Emerson was not a sexy first-round pick. Seattle essentially followed the Cole Young/Harry Ford model of first-round picks, high school bats with solid hit tools, and high-power potential. Emerson has the tools to be an impact bat, however, his floor as a hitter seems more established than his ceiling. Perhaps I will come around like I have on Ford/Young.
17. Dominic Canzone
A recent trade acquisition, Canzone put up lofty numbers in Reno. He’s already a major league bat (possibly leaving this list soon) and has enough upside to overtake other Seattle OFs such as Zach DeLoach and Cade Marlowe (who I do not have ranked in my Top-30. In Marlowe’s case, I did not see the Seattle success being as profound).
18. Ryan Bliss
Bliss really took off in 2023. He was about as consistent of a hitter in AA Amarillo as one could be. Bliss just hit the AAA level, and while he is a solid SS, his true ceiling is likely an everyday player that hits at the top of the order due to a good strike zone awareness. Nothing about him really screams superstar to me.
19. Perlander Berroa
Berroa was a pitcher I saw heavily in San Jose. He features a nasty slider, which, as many know, is Seattle’s development staff’s bread-and-butter pitch. Make no mistake about it, Berroa is an RP, however, a backend, high, leverage, RP.
20. Taylor Dollard
Unlike Hancock, Dollard has a feel for 4 pitches. While none are lights out, he can use his assortment well, mixing up his offerings to throw off hitters. Dollard has been on the injured list for the majority of 2023. If he can pitch injury free with similar results as in 2022, I would have him Top-10.
21. Alberto Rodriguez
I struggle with Rodriguez. When I watched him in Modesto, I was intrigued by his bat speed, which I viewed as much higher than most. He’s had somewhat of a breakout year in Hi-A, now finding himself in AA. The issue is, Rodriguez should have made AA late last season or broke camp there. Is his emergence a cause of being more advanced than Hi-A pitching, or is A-Rod really ready to take the next step?
22. Isiah Campbell
A future closer, Campbell is a stud RP. In my eyes, one of the best RP’s in baseball. Why him so below Berroa? The latter has a much more defined slider, one I have seen in person a lot. Berroa is a true set-up man, but I am afraid he will walk too many batters. Campbell has the safer floor. It is just unfortunate that the higher ceiling (Berroa) can sometimes win out.
23. Tyler Gough
I want to place Gough ahead of Izzi. However, I have a lot more faith in Izzi’s FB being a plus-plus offering than Gough’s. Gough has a solid slider/curve pairing. I really want to see how those pitches complement his FB.
More Sports: The Real Reason MLB Is Losing Interest
24. Bill Knight
Knight is a sneaky leadoff hitter for Modesto. He’s not a real power or speed threat. Knight is 24 and demolishing Lo-A hitting. If he was not hurt for a portion of 2023, Knight is likely in Hi-A. I see a lot of Vaun Brown (with less power), a prospect dismissed for his age at a lower level. I want to see where the Knight train goes.
25. Josh Hood
Hear me out. Josh Hood is just as good of a hitter as fellow infield prospect, and former Lo-A teammate, Cole Young. At points of 2023, Hood looked like the better hitter. I do not get the sense Hood is thought of highly in the system. He is a good contact hitter with average ratios. Not much to get excited over. However, he has a double-digit hit streak to his name, I cannot overlook that.
26. Hogan Windish
I first saw Windish in Modesto in 2022. Like a lot of names on this list) I am higher on Windish than others. Windish has a good amount of power in his bat, and, at 2B, reminds me of Dan Uggla. While Windish could move to RF, he is still very intriguing as a power-hitting middle infielder. I just wouldn’t expect a high batting average.
27. Ben Williamson
Like Locklear, Seattle took a rather unknown college bat who played against less than the top competition. However, the fact is, Williamson can rake. I am not a fan of his batting stance and swing ( a bit of a hitch in the swing) and I feel he may struggle against higher-velocity pitchers with a very complicated swing. I will go with the college stats and have a little hope I am wrong.
28. Michael Morales
A key fixture in Lo-A for 2 years, Morales has made a name for himself in Modesto. That’s a bit concerning, as he’s not really progressed as some hoped. His fastball is still below his secondary offerings. Morales does not mix up his pitches well. He does not trust the fastball. The secondary stuff could make him a solid middle reliever, one with a relatively safe floor of making it to the majors in that middle relief role.
29. BJ Schrek
Schrek was a key piece in Vanderbilt’s CWS run. A graduate transfer from Duke, Schrek has some power potential. Despite being 23, the potential to tap into the HR ball (12 2B and 2 3B hits in the 2023 College season) could progress him through the system fast.
30. Starlin Aguilar
Aguilar is not given enough credit. He’s a solid hitter. There is no outstanding power potential. He has some sneaky speed ability and could be a good depth piece to develop for future trades.
Image Source: MLB
Daniel is a guru of baseball and basketball prospects. He’s a very experienced Amusement Park traveler as well. Follow him and his hot takes on Insta @dgentleman9288
