Seattle Mariners Shouldn’t Throw In The Towel On Harry Ford
I’m all about spewing flaming hot takes that some might not personally agree with. As someone who follows a fair amount of baseball prospects and development (self-taught, still learning)I can fathom, to some, that a batting average of a team’s top draft pick might not always tell the whole story of said prospects projection and upside. One player in particular that stands out in this regard is Seattle Mariners’ 2021 12th overall pick, Harry Ford. A classic tale of not going off what’s right in front of you on a boxscore. To say he’s going to be just as good as advertised, that’s not a flaming hot take. That’s just the truth.
As previously mentioned, Seattle took the high school prodigy, Ford, in the 1st round of the 2021 First-Year Draft. A catcher by designation (more on that later) Ford has maintained a steady presence in the Lo-A Modesto Nuts lineup all season. He has had some rest days. He has also not caught every game due to some flare-ups, in which Ford has been DH’ing said games.
Looking at Ford’s .216 BA over the season, you’ll be baffled that a player of his supposed pedigree is hitting so poorly (especially for someone who’s hit at the top of the Modesto lineup frequently). That’s what your eyes are trained to believe at first glance. The numbers you see on the boxscore first are playing a sick trick on you. There’s a lot more optimism to have for Ford than what we will see on the standard baseball card.
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Looking at Ford’s numbers more in depth, while he maintains a .216 BA through June 14th (all stats through June 14th), Ford also possess a .719 OPS. In addition, the young catcher places in the top-5 of all California League batters with 38 BB’S (and is well below the top-25 in K’s). The telling sign here, while Ford isn’t getting on base via hits, he’s getting on base by a patient approach at the plate.
Take that for what it’s worth, however, Ford can still be rather aggressive.
I wasn’t very fond of this aggressive approach at first; he does swing at the first pitch often. Perhaps my initial belief on him was too critical. My thoughts of him being a high K guy with swing and miss were incorrect. After Ford settled in, and I watched a bit more over the last few weeks, he’s just a product of bad luck.That brings me to my next point, BABIP.
One stat that often goes overlooked is BAPIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). According to Prosepct 1500, the average BAPIP for Lo-A players is .325. Ford maintains a rather pedestrian. 287. That gives us a bit of insight to Ford’s lower than expected batting average. He’s been relatively unlucky during his time in Modesto thus far. If he settles into a more sustainable BABIP for a Lo-A prospect, we are going to see an uptick in the batting average.
The traits that stood out most about Ford were his bat and athleticism. While we know the bat will come around (although you can suggest the luck playing a factor in it not as of yet), the idea of him playing as an everyday catcher isn’t one many Seattle scouts envision. He will profile as an everyday OF or 1B in Seattle. Everyday position is really the only concern over Ford at this point. Where is his longterm landing spot in the majors?
It’s a bit premature to call the bat a question mark, especially when stats show us he’s doing everything right, just not getting the lucky breaks. Harry Ford will find his footing, just as he will find his everyday home on the diamond. Don’t count out Ford as the top guy we all envisioned on draft night.
Image Source: Anthony Stalcup/Marietta Daily Journal
Daniel is a guru of baseball and basketball prospects. He’s a very experienced Amusement Park traveler as well. Follow him and his hot takes on Insta @dgentleman9288
