Seattle Mariners Top-30 Prospects

Now that the 2023 season is almost here for the Seattle Mariners, let’s look at their top prospects:

1. Harry Ford (C)

While it’s not a given that Ford stays as a catcher, there is no reason to say he will not. The prevailing thought among Seattle evaluators is Ford will be destined for an OF spot. That’s not relevant in terms of his actual offensive production, which is the basis for his ranking. That is where the former 1st rnd pick, and, Great Britain baseball hero, has a leg up on his fellow Seattle prospect peers. Ford is a tad aggressive, almost always swinging at the first pitch. However, he’s also seemingly a very patient hitter. The power, which has been showcased at the WBC, will need to round out a bit more. Given his ability to work the count, it is just a matter of Ford making more right decisions at the plate than wrong. This is without question the best prospect in Seattle.

2. Tyler Locklear (1B/3B)

Most who read this list will likely think I’m crazy with this ranking. In full transparency, I am a bit out there (you’ll find that’s a theme of mine). However, who’s going to read a cut-and-dry list? One thing about Locklear, he’s safe. Do you want a consistent MLB player? This is the prospect you are looking for. In 2022, Locklear maintained a 1.342 OPS. That was not a typo. This is a talent that will become a 30 HR threat, who will not only hit for average but also have some Triple Crown appeal to him. Locklear had a respectful .313 BABIP in Lo-A, Modesto. If he can maintain the K/BB rate from his final year at VCU, he could fast-track to Seattle.

3. Bryce Miller (Pitcher)

I was admittedly cautious with Miller. I was of the belief that he would stick to his RP ways. He only became a full-time starter for Texas A&M during his Senior year. In his first full minor league season, Miller went from Lo-A to AA. He did this by possessing one of the best FBs in Seattle’s system and a collection of 3 other offerings that, while well behind his FB, are enough to convince me that he’s a starter. The only real roadblock for Miller in Seattle is that it has a loaded pitching staff. In this system, he’s a 4 or 5 starter. Yet, that’s not his fault.

4. Felnin Celesten (OF)

If I’m being fully transparent, I wanted to put Celesten at 1. Now, as much as I believe in my own opinions, I’m not going to ruffle the feathers of the prospect community by putting that much acclaim on a 17-year-old international free agent. Can you blame me, though? Celesten has the power/speed combo that makes scouts salivate. Look at who MLB Pipeline comps him to in terms of ceiling, Wander Franco, Marco Luciano, Robert Pauson (remember him?). I’m convinced Celesten has the ceiling of the former two rather than the latter, and even that doesn’t do him justice.

5. Emerson Hancock (Pitcher)

I’m still a huge believer in Hancock. Why is he below Miller? Both of these pitching prospects have a good 4-pitch repertoire. Miller’s offerings have just a bit more oomph to them. Hancock is consistent at all. He’s not an RP candidate, as all of his offerings offer starter upside. However, unlike Miller, Hancock is a 4th-5th starter on any pitching staff. On Seattle? He’s not going to find that. I can’t rank where he fits in currently. I’ll rank on what his upside is.

6. Gabriel Gonzalez (OF)

This ranking goes more along the lines of, “Wait and see.” Most, myself included, think Gonzalez has top-10 MLB prospect material. What I saw in Modesto had me expressing some concern. Gonzalez doesn’t seem to have the best control of his conditioning. That could hurt him down the road when talent can only get you so far. On that same wavelength, I got the vibe Gonzalez already thinks of himself as “the man.” As long as he can keep himself in check and motivated, the sky isn’t the limit. It’s the bare minimum.

7. Prelander Berrora (Pitcher)

Berrora, unlike the first two pitching names on this list, could be headed for an RP role. Regardless, it’s a very back-end role. Berrora has a solid fastball. It can hit triple digits. Now, do you want to see the most underrated slider in baseball? That belongs to Berroa. In 2021, Berrora shared the field with one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, Kyle Harrison. In no way am I saying Harrison isn’t as good as Berrora (although, I still could see Harrison as a pen arm), Berrora’s slider looked at times that it was just as, if not more disgusting, than Harrison’s. If there is one team outside of Cleveland, I expect to develop dominant pen arms, it’s Seattle. And that slider is lights out.

8. Cole Young (SS)

In some ways, making the case for a first-round pick out of high school, going into his first full year o minor league baseball, as a team’s top prospect is a lot like making that case for a top international signee. Sure, there is obviously a bit more projection to Young than Celesten. What’s the difference when Young plays competitive ball against pimped face adolescents who care more about sex and hook-ups, while Celesten plays against international adolescents who literally eat, sleep, and breathe baseball? I am not saying Young isn’t a talent. No question about it, Young can hit. Can he hit with real power? Can he truly be a five-tool player? Those things are all going to be developed over time. Obviously given his age and needing no adjustment to America will play better for his immediate future than Celesten. Young is a talent, no doubt about it. Is he the elite talent that puts him as the gem of the system? Can’t say.

9. Michael Arroyo (INF)

Like Celesten, Arroyo is a top international prospect. Unlike Celesten, Arroyo has some games in the DSL under him. Arroyo hit very well, with a .941 OPS. His K rates were a bit concerning to me (33 K to 27 BB) I’m convinced of his power. Arroyo is 5’10. However, he still hit 4 HRs in DSL play. When you pair that what his 10 doubles and 2 triples, that indicates some power potential, or at the very least if the power potential isn’t the real cause of this (as I can’t look at every at-bat of his DSL career), serious speed. Whatever way you look at it, this is a name to watch.

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10. Bryan Woo (Pitcher)

Let me preface Woo’s blurb with this. If he continues at this pace, he’s top-3 in this system, and, get ready for this, a top-10 RHP prospect in all of baseball! Why the high praise? Woo, who fully recovered from TJ surgery in 2022, has 3 solid pitches. The fastball can play at 99. I’m also not fully convinced he won’t hit higher this coming season. He’s a bit of a wild card when it comes to location, yet his pitches are dynamite. Now, there is regression as a possibility. Let’s not take that word literally, though. If he locates those pitches, fine-tunes the secondary stuff, and gains back that durability. he’s going to skyrocket. At the very least, Woo is a solid RP option with high potential. I’m betting on a lot more.

11. Taylor Dollard (Pitcher)

Like Miller, Dollard has a solid collection of pitches. Unlike Miller, Dollard does not have a blow-by-you fastball. The thing that keeps Dollard higher among my rankings is that he has great control and command of his pitches. It’s that alone which can propel him to a starter role given the number of pitches he offers. However, with that lack of a true dynamite pitch, I struggle to believe Dollard makes a true impact as a starter. I’m optimistic that given Seattle’s ability to define secondary offerings, he could have just enough to pair with that control.

12. Lazaro Montes (OF)

The hype Montes received in the DSL was unparalleled to any Mariners prospect last season. His lower ranking has nothing to do with his power. He hits balls routinely with an exit velocity over 100. The low ranking is more for his high K rate. Montes needs to get that under control. His walk rate and OBP suggest he’s able to make contact. However, it’s what pitches he swings at, which will make the difference. If Montes can adjust to different pitch locations (as he will need to with higher pedigree pitching in the minors), we have a star on our hands.

13. Walter Ford (Pitcher)

I’d rank Walter Ford at 1 if we were going off of potential. Ford turned 18 on December 24th. He was 17 when he was drafted and introduced to pro ball. He has a very brash (no pun intended) persona. Ford calls himself the “Vanilla Missle”. His FB hits into the 97 mph range, and this needs to be repeated. He just turned 18. His slider and change are strong offerings, yet not stand out. The big key for Ford is to find that fastball. If he can make it a true elite offering, the other pitches could fall in line.

14. Jonatan Clase (OF)

We’ve become accustomed to the base-stealing threats of baseball. With the new pitch clock rules, it’s possible to see that stealing takes on a new larger role. If stealing the base becomes the case, Clase is going to be a really fun player to see grow. One thing that stands out about Clase is that he’s got a bit more than just speed. Clase has some power in that bat. Clase won’t be a 40 homerun hitter by any means. What he is a threat to do, is rocket the ball deep into the Outfield and turn the typical single into a triple.

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15. Cade Marlowe (OF)

Cade is set right in the middle of the Mariners system. It’s fitting, as Cade is about as consistent as they come. He’s not going to have the extremely high ceiling of others, nor is he going to have the bottom-out floor of lesser prospects. Expect Marlowe to provide regular MLB at-bats. He won’t be a star. However, he’s going to play.

16. Robert Perez Jr (OF/1B)

Perez is a 22-year-old who really broke out in 2021 with Lo-A Modesto. In 2023, he once again shined, hitting 27 HRs with a .921 OPS and 114 RBIs across Lo-A Modesto and Hi-A Everett. Perez’s downfall is his age, 22 at Hi-A is not ideal (although the expectation is Perez starts at AA Arkansas or AAA Tacoma to start 2023). The K rate is also concerning. Ideally, that’s just the only really glaring flaw is the K rate. The power is there.

17. Josh Hood (Utility)

It is not a big surprise that a college bat is considered one of the strongest prospects in the system. Hood doesn’t have a strong following among Mariners fans and evaluators. I happen to be a big outlier. Why? Hood could end up being a useful utility option for Seattle. He’s got a great arm to play the infield and some solid defensive chops. In terms of a hitter, Hood profiles as average. I’m just willing to take the bet he does just enough to make him a valuable utility option at the major league level.

18. Walking Cabrera (OF)

SLEEPER ALERT!!
I love Cabrera. I feel like I might be the only one who truly feels this way. Cabrera is a modest hitter who only accounted for a .696 OPS in 2022. Cabrera also has one of the strongest stances at the plate I’ve seen. Cabrera’s defense is top-notch. I’m talking about the Gold Glove level defense. Put him in LF, and he’s not missing ANYTHING. I value players with solid MLB defensive potential. If Cabrera just found that hitting tool, he is top-10, and I won’t be talked off that ledge.

19. Isaiah Campbell (Pitcher)

100% Campbell is a backend bullpen arm. He has not shot at starting (unlike Dollard and Woo). Campbell has a good fastball/slider combo with the slider possibly growing into an elite offering. Seattle protected him from the Rule 5 Draft. They see what he brings to the table.

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20. Ricardo Cova (SS)

Who? Cova is a very under-the-radar name that many Mariners fans need to get behind. The 18-year-old SS has some real potential. In 2021, Cova had maintained .663 OPS in 77 at-bats in the DSL. In 2023, Cova increased that to .820. A cause of concern is the increased K:BB ratio. Cova seemed to be tapping more into his power in his 2nd DSL season. If he can cut back on the K’s, this talent needs to be discussed more.

21. Michael Morales (Pitcher)

I’m still puzzled by Morales. He’s one of the most mature arms in the Mariners system. He knows what his stuff is and throws it. The issue is that Morales was a high school draftee in 2021. He doesn’t have the best fastball, nor does he use it well, and relies on secondary offerings. I’m of the firm belief that Morales gets into the bullpen mix and his days as a starter will end, but, as I’ve said before, Seattle can find these breaking ball pitchers and mold them. If there is something there, and there is, Morales still has a shot at surprising us.

22. Starlin Aguilar (3B)

I was convinced of Aguilar’s potential to be a real shining star in the organization. His 2021 DSL stats were solid, with a 246 average and a 720 OPS. His 2022 stats would suggest that he improved .291 BA and his K numbers stayed consistent with 41 and 42 in the two seasons. Why am I concerned? Aguilar’s walks went from 29 in 2021 to 8 in 2022. His OPS went from .720 to .656. What’s most troublesome, the number of doubles dropped from 13 to 6. What’s that tell us? Aguilar is being too aggressive. He isn’t showing swing-and-miss. He’s showing a lack of patience and a lack of hitting the right pitches. The talent level and ceiling for this young man is high. However, of any Mariners prospect, Aguilar is the one I’ve soured on the most.

23. Juan Pinto (Pitcher)

SLEEPER ALERT
Pinto has a fastball that has the ceiling to hit the upper 90s. He maintains a change that could produce. His control is poor, yet Pinto hasn’t had a lot of live-action in the DSL. I can’t say he’s a top guy yet. What I can say is that if there is one pitch that the Mariners want to spend time developing, of any prospect (Berrora’s slider already showing elite), Pinto’s curveball is that. If he can harness that and work his confidence up, ace potential.

24. Alberto Rodriguez (OF)

The power potential is there for Rodriguez. I’ve seen some crazy bat speed in Modesto. Somehow, I feel he’s lost that. What I viewed as a potential 35+ HR player, I can’t really envision him hitting 20. He’s a K machine and isn’t in the best of shape. I grew attached to certain players. ARod is one I refuse to give up on.

25. Axel Sanchez (SS)

Personally, I’d not have Axel on my personal list (as this is my personal list). There’s just something to him that I gravitate towards. Sanchez was always working in the cages when I attended games in Modesto. He seems to be a real magnet for knowledge. Sanchez also has some clutch hits on his resume.

26. Ashton Izzi (Pitcher)

I see Izzi like I see Morales. A former high school drafted Pitcher with some good secondary offerings and a solid fastball. Izzi has a bit more juice to the fastball. Izzi also doesn’t have the same potential of his secondary stuff that Morales has. It comes down to him getting that fastball into a true dominant pitch. The off-speed offerings will come. I have Morales higher because those secondary pitches are very advanced. Izzi could overtake him if he throws for K’s. His first season in Pro Ball will be telling.

27. Hogan Windish (2B)

I love Windish’s hit tool. I was not expecting him to be as prolific as he was in Modesto. He maintained a .929 OPS with 35 RBIs. He is not a power prospect. I’ll say this much, Windish has as good of a chance as any to be a hitting machine in the Seattle lineup. Windish has a bit of Dustin Pedroia in the bat. His stock will rise.

28. Zach DeLoach (OF)

I’m reaching the point of no return on DeLoach. I’m not sure if he does anything that leads me to believe he’s a big-league player. He’s a name that adds depth to the system. I don’t think there’s much else.

29. Sam Carlson (Pitcher)

If it weren’t for TJ surgery in 2019, Carlson could be in Seattle this season. He pitched as a starter in 2021 and 2022. Carlson has high K stuff. Carlson also has some injury risks. If the injuries can subside, he could develop into good pitching depth. He’s got the stuff. He just needs to show it without injuring himself.

30. George Feliz (OF)

The speedy outfielder had some regression in 2022, going from a .813 OPS in 2021 to a .589 in 2022. Regression aside, Feliz accounted for 5 doubles and 3 triples last season in DSL play. Feliz also contributed 12 SBs. I do think there is something worth holding on to here. Will Feliz ever hit his potential? That remains to be seen.